China Unlikely to Meet US Soybean Purchase Commitments, Trade Doubts Intensify

Doubts are growing across global commodity markets about China’s ability — and willingness — to meet its newly announced US soybean purchase commitments. Under a trade “framework” agreement signed on October 30, China pledged to buy 12 million tonnes of US soybeans in calendar year 2025 and 25 million tonnes annually from 2026 through 2028. But most traders say the targets are highly improbable.

According to reports, six US soybean cargoes were loading or preparing to load at Gulf ports this week, with another already en route to China — the first such shipments since spring. Earlier this year, Chinese absence from the US market had pushed US soybean futures to near five-year lows.

China bought 1.584 million tonnes of US soybeans in just three days during the week of November 16, the largest weekly purchase in more than two years. Total November bookings have reached 2.151 million tonnes for 2025-26 delivery, plus a 100,000-tonne good-faith purchase on October 30. While this spurt in buying lifted futures and prompted US farmers to sell more new-crop supplies, the volumes remain far short of the 12-million-tonne pledge with only weeks left in the calendar year.

Persistent Market Skepticism

Many in the trade believe China will not fulfil either the 2025 commitment or the larger three-year volume. Notably, Beijing has not formally confirmed details of the October agreement, even as the Trump administration highlighted it as a breakthrough. President Trump later suggested that China could meet the 12-million-tonne purchase “before spring”, contradicting earlier statements from Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, who said the commitment applied to calendar 2025.

The market currently anticipates 8–10 million tonnes of Chinese US soybean purchases in 2025. But some experts see the actual figure could be as low as 3–3.5 million tonnes. 

USDA’s November WASDE report forecast 2025-26 US soybean exports at 44.5 million tonnes, down 13% from the previous year. China lacks sufficient storage capacity to take on additional US supplies, and fulfilling the pledge would require it to cancel (or “wash out”) some Brazilian bookings — an unlikely move.

Brazil’s Dominance Complicates the Picture

Brazil remains the biggest threat to US export prospects. With record acreage and favourable costs, Brazil continues to supply China with cheaper soybeans. The country’s new crop harvest begins in late December and expands through January, narrowing the export window for US shipments early in 2025.

Trade analysts say even the recent Chinese purchases could have been sourced more cheaply from Brazil, another reason they doubt China’s long-term commitment to US volumes. USDA projects Brazilian soybean exports at 112.5 million tonnes in 2025-26, up 9% from the previous year.

Meanwhile, US export inspections reveal how sharply China has pulled back. As of November 27, soybeans inspected for export were down 46% from a year earlier, underscoring China’s shift to alternative suppliers. In contrast, wheat exports were up 20% and corn up 71% year-on-year.

With uncertainties surrounding the trade framework, renegotiable annual volumes, and Brazil’s competitive edge, traders see China’s promise as more political signalling than a binding purchase plan. For now, market sentiment remains cautious, and expectations for US soybean export recovery are muted.