Global Food Prices Ease in September as Cereal Supplies Improve: FAO
Comfortable global supply prospects expected for major crops. New forecasts point to higher cereal production, utilization, stocks, and trade.
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World food commodity prices dipped slightly in September, led by declines in sugar and dairy, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 128.8 points in September, versus a revised August level of 129.7 points. The September reading represents a 3.4 percent increase from a year ago.
Sugar and dairy prices drove the decline. The FAO Sugar Price Index fell 4.1% to its lowest since March 2021, pressured by strong harvest prospects in Brazil, India, and Thailand. The FAO Dairy Price Index dropped 2.6%, with butter prices sliding 7% due to waning ice cream demand and higher output in Oceania.
The FAO Cereal Price Index slipped 0.6%, as wheat, maize, and rice prices eased on expectations of abundant supplies. Vegetable oil quotations also edged down 0.7%, with weaker palm and soybean oil prices offsetting gains in sunflower and rapeseed oils.
By contrast, the FAO Meat Price Index rose 0.7% to a new record high, driven by strong U.S. demand for bovine and ovine meat.
Higher Cereal Production
In a separate update, FAO raised its forecast for global cereal production in 2025 to 2.97 billion tonnes, up 3.8% from last year marking the fastest growth since 2013.
The new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief attributed the upward revisions to higher production prospects across all crops. Notable increases are anticipated for wheat in Australia, maize in the United States of America, and rice in India.
Global cereal stocks are forecast to expand by the close of seasons in 2026 to 900.2 million tonnes, with world rice reserves possibly reaching a record high. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2025/26 is expected to remain virtually unchanged at 30.6 percent, continuing to indicate comfortable global supply prospects.
FAO’s new forecasts point to a 2.5 percent annual increase in international cereal trade, now predicted to reach 497.1 million tonnes. The rise is due to an anticipated notable growth in the world wheat trade, while international rice trade is expected to decline due to lower demand by Asian and African countries, reflecting good local harvests and large purchases made in 2025.
