Growth in agriculture estimated at 3.9%, GDP growth at 9.2% in First Advance Estimates

The growth in agriculture has been estimated at 3.9 per cent in the current financial year. It stood at 3.6 per cent in FY 2020-21. This was stated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in its First Advance Estimates (FAE) of National Income released on January 7. The growth in agriculture at current prices is estimated to be at 9.1 per cent in FY 2021-22 compared to 6.6 per cent last year.

According to the FAE, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth this year will be 9.2 per cent. The GDP had gone down by 7.3 per cent in the last financial year because of the Covid-19 lockdown. India’s GDP growth rate this year will be the highest among the world’s major economies. In its last monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had estimated the growth rate to be at 9.5 per cent in the current financial year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and S&P have pegged it at 9.5 per cent each while Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have estimated it at 9.3 per cent and 8.7 per cent respectively.

The FAE data are used as input for preparing the budget for the next financial year. This data is roughly calculated on the basis of the figures for the first six months. This year, too, the First Advance Estimates for crop production, the figures for the first seven months for the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the performance of the private companies for the first half-year, etc. have been included in this calculation.

GDP size will be greater than 2019-20

Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in the year 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 147.54 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2020-21 of Rs 135.13 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2021. It is worth noting that the GDP this year is expected to exceed the figure of Rs 145.69 lakh crore for the pre-Covid year 2019-20. However, the Omicron variant of the Coronavirus has been spreading fast since December-end. This has again reined in economic activities across the country once again. Its impact on the economy will depend on how long its effect lasts.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) has the largest share of 54.8 per cent in the GDP. It is estimated to be at Rs 80.81 lakh crore. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), which is an indicator of the investment in the economy, is expected to remain at about Rs 48.52 lakh crore. The Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) has been estimated at Rs 17 lakh crore. The exports are estimated to go up by 16.5 per cent and imports by about 30 per cent this year.

Per Capita GDP may go up by 8.1 per cent

The Per Capita GDP had declined by 8.2 per cent last year to Rs 99,694 (at 2011-12 prices). This is estimated to go up by 8.1 per cent this year to Rs 1,07,801. However, despite this increase, it will be less than the 2019-20 figures of Rs 1,08, 645. Besides 3.9 per cent in agriculture this year, growths have been estimated at 14.3 per cent in mining and quarrying, 12.5 per cent in manufacturing, 8.5 per cent in electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services, 10.7 per cent in construction, 11.9 per cent in trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting, 4 per cent in financial, real estate and professional services, and 10.7 per cent in public administration, defence and other services.