IMD forecast of above-normal monsoon rainfall comes as huge relief to farmers
Signalling much relief, especially to the agriculture sector, India will likely receive above-normal monsoon rainfall this year on expectation of El Nino turning into neutral and La Nina conditions setting in by Aug-Sept, the IMD said on Monday.
Farmers across India have been in turmoil with the Pacific-born El Niño phenomenon causing deficient rainfall, stoking inflation and causing rural distress in the past year.
Parts of northwest, east and northeast India are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the season, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the director general of the IMD, said during a presser.
However, models have not given any "clear signal" about monsoon rainfall for several parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, which form the core monsoon zone (agriculture primarily rain-fed) of the country.
The IMD chief said there is a 29 percent chance of normal rainfall, 31 percent chance of above-normal rainfall and 30 percent chance of excess precipitation during the monsoon season.
Meanwhile, M Ravichandran, the secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said that the seasonal rainfall will be on the higher side of 'above-normal'.
Parts of the country are already battling extreme heat and a significantly high number of heat wave days are expected in the April to June period. This could strain power grids, and result in water shortages in several areas.
Rainfall during the four-month monsoon season beginning June is expected to be 106 percent of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm with a model error of +/-5 percent. Cumulative monsoon rain nationwide between 104-110 percentof LPA is considered as 'above normal' and based on the period 1971-2020.
Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
“India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 percent of LPA (87 cm)," Mahapatra said. “Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September."
India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.
El Nino, Spanish for "little boy," is a climatic pattern marked by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon tends to emerge every two to seven years and can last from nine to twelve months, affecting weather conditions globally.
La Nina, or "little girl" in Spanish, is characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the same regions. Occurring roughly every three to five years, La Nina can sometimes happen in consecutive years, bringing about increased rainfall and distinct weather patterns.
Experts pointed out that the forecast comes at a time when El Nino caused drought and prolonged dry spells in Asia as the Pacific Ocean warmed, driving the government to tackle inflation by taking a series of preventative measures, including the launch of Bharat atta, rice and dal, and export curbs.
India's retail inflation marginally decreased to 4.85 percent in March from 5.09 percent in February — still above the central bank's 4 percent target but has stayed within its tolerance range of 2-6 percent for the seventh consecutive month. Overall, food inflation fell to 8.52 percent last month, down from 8.66 percent in February, when it had seen a sharp rise in prices of meat, fish and eggs, and vegetables.
The forecast also assumes significance as India’s water level in 150 major reservoirs fell to 33 percent of capacity as of Thursday. However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system. Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.
Monsoon is crucial for India as it delivers nearly 70 percent of its annual rainfall, making it important for farming. Nearly half of India's arable land doesn't have access to irrigation and depends on these rains to grow crops such as rice, corn, cane, cotton and soybean. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.
About 56 percent of the net cultivated area is rain-fed, accounting for 44 percent of food production, making rains essential for India's food security. Normal rainfall leads to robust crop production, helping keep a lid on food prices, including vegetables.
The monsoon is critical for India's agricultural landscape. It is also crucial for the replenishing reservoirs critical for drinking water apart from power generation across the country. A prediction of above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, therefore, comes as a huge relief to the fast-developing South Asian nation.
