India’s Cotton Area Set to Decline in 2025-26 Amid Crop Shift: USDA Report
Despite the decline in planted area, India’s cotton production is projected at 25 million 480 lb. bales, based on the expectation of a normal monsoon season.
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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has forecast India’s cotton acreage at 11.4 million hectares for the marketing year (MY) 2025-26. This represents a three-percent decrease from the previous year due to a shift toward more profitable crops such as pulses and oilseeds.
Despite the decline in planted area, India’s cotton production is projected at 25 million 480 lb. bales, based on the expectation of a normal monsoon season. FAS forecasts an average yield of 477 kilograms per hectare, a three percent increase from the official MY 2024/25 estimate of 461 kilograms per hectare due to production in regions with adequate irrigation facilities and water availability.
However, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a warning of above-normal maximum temperatures across most of India, excluding the southern regions, from March to May 2025. While cotton is known for its tolerance to high temperatures and drought, prolonged and severe heatwaves could negatively impact yields if moisture levels are insufficient.
On the demand side, mill consumption is projected to remain robust at 25.7 million 480-lb. bales, driven by steady yarn and textile demand in major international markets. This consumption level suggests that India will likely continue to rely on strong imports to supplement its domestic supply.
On March 10, the Indian Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare published the second advance production estimate for MY 2024/25, reflecting a reduction to 23 million 480 lb. bales (29.4 million 170-kilogram bales/5 million metric tons), two percent lower than the previous forecast. However, the FAS maintains its MY 2024/25 forecast at 25 million 480 lb. bales on 11.8 million hectares.
The agency notes that rabi sowing in the south continues through December, and additional area data is expected to be reported at the end of the marketing year (October–September).
Planted Area Estimates by Region
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North India: Punjab's cotton area remains steady, while Haryana sees a 5% decline due to a shift to paddy rice. Rajasthan's cotton area is expected to decrease by 2% as farmers opt for guar, maize, and mung beans, though better pest management may boost yields.
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Central India: Gujarat’s cotton area is forecast to decline by 3% due to shifts to pulses, groundnut, cumin, and sesamum, driven by high production costs. Maharashtra's cotton area remains unchanged as farmers seek alternatives to soybean. Madhya Pradesh sees a 5% decline as farmers shift to oilseeds and pulses.
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South India: A 7% reduction in cotton area is expected across Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu as government incentives for ethanol production encourage a switch to maize and rice.
