ISMA lowers sugar production estimate to 305 lt for 2021-22

After accounting for the reduction in sugar production due to the diversion of cane juice and B-molasses to ethanol, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) estimates sugar production in 2021-22 at around 305 lakh tonnes (lt) of sugar, lower than its preliminary estimate of 310 lt released in July 2021. This was stated in an ISMA press release on October 28. These are the first advance estimates for the current SS or sugar season (October–September).

The diversion of cane juice and B-molasses to ethanol is estimated to reduce sugar production by about 34 lt in 2021-22 SS, similar to preliminary estimates released by ISMA. However, ISMA will get a better idea of this diversion once the tenders for ESY 2021-22 happen and bids are given by millers for ethanol supplies.

The preliminary estimates had been based on the first survey of satellite mapping carried out in the last week of June 2021.

The opening balance (OB) of 82.94 lt on October 1, 2021, is about 25 lt less than the opening stock a year ago. But it is still more than the domestic requirement for the initial months of the next season, says ISMA, before the new season’s sugar comes into the market.

As ISMA expects almost a similar production in 2021-22 SS, India will need to export about 60 lt of the surplus sugar during 2021-22 SS. Sugar production for 2020-21 was estimated at around 311.81 lt and exports stood at 70.72 lt.

The sugarcane crushing for 2021-22 has already started in some areas and is expected to start soon in the other regions of the country. Therefore, a better picture would emerge once the crushing starts fully and the actual trend of yields and sugar recoveries would become available.

As has been the practice, ISMA will again review the sugarcane and sugar production estimates in January 2022, when the trends of the above are available.

As of now, Uttar Pradesh (UP) is estimated to have a sugarcane area of 23.08 lakh hectares (ha), more or less similar to the previous year. ISMA is expecting a marginal decrease in yield as well as sugar recovery mainly due to the impact of heavy and untimely rainfall throughout the state, particularly in its eastern region. The estimated sugar production, without considering diversion for production of ethanol, is expected to be around 113.5 lt in 2021-22 SS.

The cane area in the other major sugar-producing state, Maharashtra, has gone up by about 11 per cent in 2021-22 SS — from 11.48 lakh ha to 12.78 lakh ha. South-west monsoon rainfall in the state has been very good and there has been sufficient water availability in the reservoirs in almost all the regions in the State. The estimated sugar production is expected to be about 122.5 lt in 2021-22 SS, without considering diversion into ethanol.

Sugarcane area in Karnataka is slightly higher in 2021-22 SS at 5.11 lakh ha and sugar production in 2021-22 SS is estimated to be around 49.5 lt, without ethanol diversion.