El Niño Begins, IMD Warns Conditions Likely to Strengthen Through Monsoon Season

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially confirmed the onset of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, raising concerns about its potential impact on India's southwest monsoon. The weather agency has warned that the climate phenomenon is expected to strengthen further in the coming months and could influence rainfall patterns during the ongoing monsoon season. US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also declared on Thursday that El Niño has begun. Japanese weather agency has also declared the onset of El Niño.

In its new bulletin on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the IMD said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have risen above the threshold required for El Niño conditions. More significantly, atmospheric patterns have also aligned with the oceanic warming, indicating that a fully developed El Niño event is now underway.

"Currently, El Niño conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the Southwest Monsoon season," the IMD said. Forecasts generated by the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) suggest the phenomenon is likely to intensify as the monsoon progresses.

According to the IMD, the latest three-month average Niño 3.4 index, a key indicator used to monitor El Niño, has crossed the +0.5°C threshold, officially confirming the event. The department also reported strong positive temperature anomalies beneath the ocean surface across large parts of the equatorial Pacific, a signal that additional warm water is likely to emerge and reinforce El Niño over the coming months.

Climate models indicate that above-normal sea surface temperatures will persist across the central Pacific through June-August and are expected to expand into both the central and eastern Pacific from July onward. Most forecast models now point to moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions prevailing during a substantial part of the southwest monsoon season.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Historically, it has been associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in India, higher temperatures, prolonged dry spells and an elevated risk of drought in some regions.

However, the IMD emphasized that El Niño is only one of several factors influencing India's monsoon performance. The agency noted that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions currently prevail and are expected to continue through the season. This suggests the IOD is unlikely to either significantly strengthen or weaken El Niño's influence in the near term.

Meanwhile, the Japan Meteorological Agency, which officially declared the onset of El Niño on June 11, has indicated that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could emerge around July. Such a development may help offset part of the adverse impact of what some forecasters fear could evolve into a strong or even "super" El Niño event.

The IMD said it will continue to closely monitor Pacific Ocean conditions and provide monthly updates as the monsoon season advances.