Congress-Led UDF Returns to Power in Kerala, Left’s Last Bastion Falls

Counting of votes is underway for the assembly elections held in four states and one union territory. According to trends and results so far, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) appears to be moving towards a majority in Kerala, and the Left's last bastion has collapsed. The UDF is clearly leading in the 140-seat assembly and is on its way to returning to power.

According to the latest trends from the Election Commission, the UDF is leading in approximately 85 seats and appears to be crossing the majority mark (71 seats). Congress leads in 63 seats, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in 22 seats, while the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) appears to be shrinking to 35 seats. The NDA (BJP alliance) is ahead in 2 seats. These trends clearly indicate a change of power in Kerala after 10 years.

After Karnataka and Telangana, a Congress government is now poised to form in Kerala. This is a welcome relief for the Congress party amid disappointing performances in West Bengal, Assam, and Tamil Nadu. Meanwhile, the last stronghold of the Left parties in Kerala has collapsed. The CPM and CPI have failed to overcome the 10-year anti-incumbency wave.

This is the first time in the last five decades that a Left party will not be in power in any state in the country. This could further weaken the Left's influence in national politics. In Kerala, the LDF contested the elections under the leadership of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, but the anti-incumbency sentiment has made even his own seat challenging, and several ministers are facing the threat of defeat.

The Congress and UDF benefited from the consolidation of minority votes. The Congress and its allies were successful in capitalising on fears that the UDF's third consecutive defeat would create space for the BJP in the state. Meanwhile, the CPI(M)'s efforts to attract Hindu votes after its defeat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections further alienated minority voters.

The LDF's defeat in traditional strongholds like North Kerala and the decline in vote share in other regions reflect growing resentment within its base. Despite development issues, infrastructure projects, and social media campaigns, the LDF failed to translate these efforts into votes. Local issues such as rising inflation, unemployment, farmers' problems, and wild animal attacks also impacted the LDF's support.

The Congress also received significant support from Christian voters in Central Kerala, who had deserted it in 2021. The narrowing of differences between the Christian and Muslim communities benefited the UDF in several seats and strengthened its social base.

The UDF fielded new candidates in 99 seats this time and denied tickets to 14 MLAs, a strategy that appears to be successful. The resentment of the fishing community in coastal areas also weighed heavily on the LDF. Nearly 40 seats in the state are considered coastally influenced.

The low turnout of expatriate voters working in Gulf countries and the gas supply crisis also impacted the election. Due to tensions in West Asia, a large number of expatriate voters were unable to return to Kerala this time.

In the 2021 elections, the LDF won 99 seats, and Pinarayi Vijayan became Chief Minister for the second time. However, this time, anti-incumbency, local issues, and the UDF's strong strategy pushed the LDF back. In the last 50 years, no coalition has managed to retain power more than twice in the state.

Discussions have intensified regarding the chief ministerial position in the UDF government. Among Congress leaders, V.D. Satheesan, Ramesh Chennithala, or K.C. Venugopal are front-runners.