USDA Lifts US, Global Wheat Stock Estimates, Signals Bearish Outlook for Markets

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in a series of reports, has projected higher-than-expected wheat ending stocks in both the United States and globally, reinforcing a bearish outlook for wheat markets. The updated estimates point to ample supplies, subdued domestic use and stronger production prospects in key exporting countries such as Argentina and Russia.

In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the USDA raised its forecast for US wheat carryover on June 1, 2026, to 926 million bushels. This is 25 million bushels higher than the December estimate and 71 million bushels, or 8%, above the 2025 level. The projection is at the upper end of analysts’ expectations and reflects weaker feed use and stable exports.

The Department also revised its estimate of 2025 US wheat carryover upward by 4 million bushels, based on updated data from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. Feed and residual use was cut by 20 million bushels due to lower-than-expected first-quarter disappearance, while seed use was reduced by 1 million bushels. Overall US wheat exports were left unchanged at 900 million bushels, although the USDA reallocated shipments among wheat classes.

Among wheat classes, hard red winter (HRW) wheat stocks on June 1, 2026, were raised to 450 million bushels, up 24 million bushels from December and 48 million bushels from 2025. The increase reflects lower domestic use and reduced exports. Hard red spring wheat carryover was raised modestly to 226 million bushels, while soft red winter wheat stocks were increased to 141 million bushels on weaker feed use and exports.

In contrast, white wheat carryover was lowered to 77 million bushels due to stronger export expectations, while durum wheat stocks were reduced to 32 million bushels on higher feed and residual use.

Global stocks also to rise
On the global front, the USDA projected higher wheat supplies, consumption, trade and ending stocks. Global wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 were raised by 3.4 million tonnes to 278.3 million tonnes, largely due to increased production in Argentina and Russia. Global output is now estimated at 1.102 billion tonnes, up 4.3 million tonnes from the previous forecast.

Argentina’s wheat production was raised by 3.5 million tonnes to 27.5 million tonnes, while Russia’s output was increased by 2 million tonnes to 89.5 million tonnes. These gains more than offset a reduction in Turkey’s crop. Global production is now significantly higher than last year, adding substantial pressure to prices despite lingering quality concerns.

The USDA also released its Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report, estimating US winter wheat plantings for the 2026 harvest at 32.9 million acres. While slightly below last year and the five-year average, the figure was marginally above market expectations. Plantings remain far below historical highs, reflecting a long-term shift toward corn and soybean cultivation.

Hard red winter wheat acreage was estimated at 23.5 million acres, with notable increases in Oklahoma but sharp declines in Montana. Soft red winter wheat acreage edged higher, while white wheat plantings declined by 5%.

Prices to remain range-bound
Meanwhile, the quarterly Grain Stocks report showed US wheat stocks on December 1, 2025, at 1.68 billion bushels, up 7% from a year earlier and well above the five-year average. Wheat futures fell following the release of the data, as markets digested the implications of abundant supplies.

With fundamentals remaining bearish, analysts expect wheat prices to remain range-bound in the near term, with market participants closely watching cash markets, geopolitical developments and quality differentials for future direction.