Monsoon Advances into West UP, Haryana and Punjab; Widespread Rain Likely Across India Over Next Week

July began on a wet note after June ended with a rainfall deficit of nearly 40 percent, as the southwest monsoon made significant progress across northern India. On July 1, the monsoon advanced into western Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab, while covering the remaining parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, bringing widespread rainfall across the region.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi & Punjab, and some parts of Rajasthan during the next 2 days.

The IMD has also forecast the formation of a low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal around July 3, which is expected to strengthen monsoon activity across central India during the next five to six days.

Heavy rainfall across western and central India

During the past 24 hours, very heavy rainfall (12–20 cm) was recorded at many places over Konkan and Coastal Karnataka, at a few places in Gujarat, and at isolated locations in Madhya Maharashtra, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha and West Madhya Pradesh. Extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 21 cm was also reported at isolated places in Konkan, Gujarat Region and Coastal Karnataka.

Heavy rainfall (7–11 cm) occurred at isolated places across Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Maharashtra, Saurashtra, Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand and Vidarbha. Thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds reaching 40–60 kmph were reported over several parts of the country, while squally winds were observed in western Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Rainfall deficit narrows to 38%

With the revival of monsoon activity, India's cumulative rainfall deficit during the period June 1 to July 1 has narrowed to 38 percent.

The country received 108.1 mm of rainfall against the normal 172.9 mm during the period. While rainfall remains significantly below normal, the recent improvement is expected to support agricultural operations, particularly the ongoing kharif sowing season.

The fresh spell of rainfall is likely to accelerate sowing activities after kharif acreage was reported to be 23 percent lower than last year as of June 25.

Rain forecast for the next seven days

The IMD has forecast widespread rainfall across large parts of the country through July 7. States likely to receive significant rainfall include Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Bihar, Assam, Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala.

The IMD has warned of extremely heavy rainfall over:

• South Gujarat, Konkan and Goa from July 1 to 5;

• Coastal Karnataka on July 1 and 2;

• Madhya Maharashtra from July 2 to 5; and

• Southwest Madhya Pradesh on July 3 and 4.

Heavy rainfall is also expected over West Uttar Pradesh during July 1–2, East Uttar Pradesh during July 6–7, and East Rajasthan during July 5–7. Central India, including Chhattisgarh, East and West Madhya Pradesh, and Vidarbha, is likely to witness widespread rainfall during the week under the influence of the developing low-pressure system.

Meanwhile, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim are also expected to experience widespread rainfall during the next seven days.