India Likely to See Above-Normal Rainfall in May 2026; Heatwave Days to Rise in Several Regions: IMD
IMD’s May 2026 outlook forecasts a mixed weather pattern, with above-normal rainfall across the country but a rise in heatwave days in several regions. Emerging El Niño conditions could influence the upcoming monsoon.
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its monthly outlook for May 2026, projecting a mixed weather pattern, with rising heatwave days in several regions even as the country is likely to receive above-normal rainfall overall.
According to the IMD, maximum temperatures during May 2026 are expected to be normal to below normal across many parts of the country. However, above-normal temperatures are likely in many parts of southern peninsular India, some parts of the northeast, and northwest India.
Minimum temperatures, on the other hand, are expected to be above normal across most regions. However, many parts of northwest India, along with some areas of central India, adjoining regions of peninsular India, and southern parts of northeast India, may experience normal to below-normal minimum temperatures.
The IMD has also warned of an increase in heatwave days. During May 2026, above-normal heatwave conditions are likely over some parts of the Himalayan foothills, east coast states, as well as Gujarat and Maharashtra. Despite this, relatively lower maximum temperatures in several areas could help moderate overall heat stress to some extent.
The IMD has forecast that the country as a whole is most likely to receive above-normal rainfall during May, exceeding 110 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). Most parts of India are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, some regions in east and northeast India, along with parts of east-central India, may witness below-normal rainfall.
The outlook also highlights evolving global climate conditions. Currently, neutral conditions associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are evolving toward El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific. According to the IMD’s latest Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS), El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season.
The IMD’s outlook indicates a complex interplay of heat and rainfall patterns in May, with implications for agriculture, water resources, and public health as the country prepares for the monsoon season.
