Global Wheat, Rice and Coarse Grain Output Set for Record Highs in 2025, Says FAO

Global cereal markets are poised for a year of strong expansion, with wheat, rice, and coarse grains forecast to reach record production levels in 2025–26, according to the FAO Food Outlook November 2025. The report highlights favourable weather, expanded planting areas and improved yields across major producers as key drivers of the surge.

Wheat production is projected to hit 819 million tonnes, a 2.5% increase, making it the highest output ever recorded. The European Union leads the rebound thanks to favourable weather and larger planted areas. India also reports significant gains due to remunerative prices that encouraged wider planting, while the Russian Federation benefits from strong spring wheat yields. These increases offset reductions in Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan and Türkiye, where rainfall deficits weakened harvests.

Global wheat utilization is seen rising to 808 million tonnes, supported by higher food and feed use. Wheat usage in animal feed is expected to grow in Asia and North America. World wheat trade is forecast to rise 5.1% to 202 million tonnes, driven by increased imports from Asian countries. Wheat stocks are projected to reach a record 328.8 million tonnes, keeping global supply conditions comfortable.

Rice production is forecast to rise 1.2% to an all-time high of 556 million tonnes (milled), driven by Asia’s strong output and record harvests in Latin America and the Caribbean. Despite robust food demand and higher industrial use, rice production is expected to exceed utilization, pushing global rice stocks to a new high of 215 million tonnes. Global rice trade may decline slightly to 61.1 million tonnes, as several importing countries rely on ample domestic supplies.

Global coarse grain production - dominated by maize - is expected to rise 6.6% to 1.61 billion tonnes, led by bumper harvests in Brazil and the United States. Strong rains also revived yields across Southern Africa. Coarse grain utilization is projected at 1.57 billion tonnes, mainly due to higher feed and industrial use of maize. Coarse grain trade is likely to expand by 2.6%, with sorghum exports expected to rebound sharply, driven by strong demand from China.

International prices for all three cereals have softened due to abundant supplies, with the FAO All Rice Price Index falling to its lowest level since December 2021.