Monsoon Likely to Hit Kerala on May 26, Below-Normal Rainfall Expected Due to El Niño
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast an early onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala on May 26, nearly a week ahead of the normal date. However, due to the impact of El Niño, the country is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the June-September monsoon season.
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India may witness the onset of the southwest monsoon nearly a week ahead of its normal schedule this year. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its forecast issued on Friday that the southwest monsoon is likely to reach Kerala on May 26. However, the forecast carries a model error margin of ±4 days.
According to the IMD, conditions are becoming favourable for the further advance of the southwest monsoon over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next 24 hours, whereas the normal date for its onset over the region is around May 20. Notably, due to the impact of El Niño this year, rainfall during the monsoon season (June-September) is expected to remain below normal across the country.
Usually, the monsoon reaches Kerala around June 1 and gradually advances northwards to cover the rest of the country. The onset over Kerala marks the formal beginning of the southwest monsoon season, which lasts from June to September.
Last year, the monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24. If the monsoon reaches Kerala on May 26 this year, it will still be considered earlier than the normal onset date. Over the past 21 years, the IMD’s forecasts regarding the onset of the monsoon over Kerala have proved accurate except in 2015.
The southwest monsoon is considered extremely important for India’s agricultural economy. The sowing of kharif crops such as rice, soybeans, maize, and cotton largely depends on monsoon rainfall. An early onset of the monsoon could help farmers begin sowing preparations in time.
Normal rainfall during the four-month monsoon season from June to September is crucial for the country’s agriculture and economy. In its first phase long-range forecast for the monsoon season, the IMD stated that rainfall this year is likely to remain below normal at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with an error margin of ±5%.
