44% of UP's Sugarcane Area Planted with Disease Prone Variety, India's Sugar Production Falls 20%
In the current crushing year 2024-25, out of the total sugarcane area of 28.25 lakh hectares in Uttar Pradesh, 44.45 percent area was of CO-0238 variety which has become a pest and disease prone variety. The second variety is CO-0118 whose area is 22.14 percent. Apart from these, 9 other sugarcane varieties are being grown in the state whose area is between 0.05 percent to 9.37 percent.
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In the 2024-25 crushing season (October to September), India's sugar production has dropped by approximately 60 lakh tonnes, or about 20%, compared to the previous year. Last year, the country produced 319 lakh tonnes of sugar, but this season, production is expected to hover around 260 lakh tonnes. Most of the 533 sugar mills in India, barring a few, have already ceased crushing operations.
As of April 30, sugar production stood at 256.90 lakh tonnes. Due to the government permitting sugar exports and the decline in production, domestic sugar prices have risen by about ₹500 per quintal. However, despite this price hike, sugarcane farmers in Uttar Pradesh (UP), the country's largest sugar-producing state, have faced losses. This signals a looming crisis for the sugar industry.
The reasons are two fold. First, nearly half of UP’s sugarcane area is still planted with the disease-prone Co-0238 variety, leading to aroud 20% production drop in several districts. Second, the state government has frozen the State Advised Price (SAP) for sugarcane at the 2023-24 level. This has dealt a double blow to farmers, with reduced yields and stagnant prices.
In Maharashtra, the second-largest sugar-producing state, sugarcane crops entered in the flowering stage prematurely in January, causing a production decline. Low sugarcane availability in Mahshratra reduced the crushing season around 90 days for majority of Sugar mills in the state. A similar situation prevails in Karnataka, the third-largest sugar-producing state.
According to industry organisations, UP’s sugar production is likely to fall by 12 lakh tonnes to around 91 lakh tonnes this year. In Maharashtra, production is expected to drop by 30 lakh tonnes to 80.70 lakh tonnes, while Karnataka’s output is projected to decline by 12 lakh tonnes to 42 lakh tonnes.
The situation in UP is particularly alarming. Sugarcane is no longer as profitable for farmers compared to other crops, and the shortage of sugarcane has led to early mill closures, threatening their business viability.
A decade ago, the Co-0238 sugarcane variety revolutionized UP’s sugar economy, boosting sugarcane yields by 30% and significantly increasing farmers’ incomes. Sugar recovery rates in some mills exceeded 13%. By 2020-21, 86.70% of UP’s 27.40 lakh hectares of sugarcane area was under Co-0238, its peak coverage.
Agricultural scientists warn that such dominance by a single variety is risky, as it can lead to widespread losses if the variety becomes disease prone. This is precisely what happened in UP. A few years ago, Co-0238 began succumbing to diseases like red rot and top borer. Despite warnings from scientists and sugar mills, farmers continued growing it due to the lack of a viable alternative. The disease outbreaks increased pesticide costs and drastically reduced yields.
According to UP’s Sugarcane Development Department, in 2024-25, 44.45% of the state’s 28.25 lakh hectares of sugarcane area was still under Co-0238. The second most common variety, Co-0118, covered 22.14%. Nine other varieties, ranging from 0.05% to 9.37% of the area, are also grown, but two-thirds of the sugarcane area remains dominated by just two varieties. The failure of central and state sugarcane research institutes to develop a robust alternative to Co-0238, despite its known vulnerabilities, has compounded the issue. It is a failure of extension department of governent and sugar mills which are not making farmers aware about the risk of growing this variety and unable to convince them to shift to a better suitable variety.
This has led to a decline in sugarcane cultivation in UP. In 2024-25, the sugarcane area shrank by about 50,000 hectares, from 28.74 lakh hectares in 2023-24 to 28.25 lakh hectares.
Disease affacted crop, rising costs, falling yields, and stagnant prices have disillusioned UP’s sugarcane farmers, prompting many to switch to other crops or agro-forestry. This trend is a growing concern for the sugar industry.
A senior official from a major UP sugar mill group told Rural Voice that continued challenges could jeopardize investments in the sugar industry. With sugar and ethanol production potential in mind, mills have heavily invested in capacity expansion. However, the industry now faces a critical need to ensure adequate sugarcane supply by offering farmers better prices and access to improved varieties. The state government is also concerned, as some districts still have up to 70% of their sugarcane area under Co-0238.
This marks the second consecutive year of declining sugar production in India. Reduced sugarcane availability has also impacted ethanol production from cane juice and B-heavy molasses. Many mills halted ethanol production just two months into the crushing season, as sugar prices were more lucrative. Of the 50 lakh tonnes of sugar expected to be diverted for ethanol in 2024-25, only 29 lakh tonnes have been diverted so far, with projections reaching 32 lakh tonnes by the season’s end.
If sugarcane production continues to decline, it could affect not only sugar but also ethanol output. The ongoing ethanol blending program has excluded cane juice and B-heavy molasses-based ethanol from recent tenders, favouring C-heavy molasses and grain-based ethanol.
For sugar mills, producing sugar is currently more profitable than ethanol, especially after the government permitted the export of 10 lakh tonnes of sugar in December.
With falling production, domestic sugar prices have risen, with ex-factory prices in UP up to around ₹4,200 per quintal. However, mills face a shortage of sugarcane to capitalize on these opportunities.
Looking ahead, the sugar industry is worried about the next season. Higher wheat prices have made the wheat-paddy cycle more attractive for farmers, leaving sugarcane less competitive. To reverse this trend, farmers need better sugarcane prices and access to advanced varieties to ensure the sustainability of both the sugarcane economy and the sugar industry.
