Rainfall Deficit Hits 99% in Some States During July's Second Week; Widespread Showers Likely Over Next 5 Days

More than one-and-a-half months of the southwest monsoon season have passed, yet over half of India's states have received significantly below-normal rainfall. In some states, the cumulative rainfall deficit during this period has reached as high as 69%. The week from July 9 to July 15 was particularly alarming, with rainfall deficits touching up to 99% in certain states. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast rainfall across most parts of the country over the next four to five days, which is expected to reduce the deficit.

According to IMD data, during the past week (July 9-15), Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Sikkim recorded normal rainfall, while Uttarakhand, West Bengal, Tripura and Mizoram received above-normal rainfall. All other states experienced rainfall deficits ranging from 67% to 99% during the period.

Photo: Rainfall during July 9-15. Blue indicates above-normal rainfall, green indicates normal, red indicates below-normal, and yellow indicates a severe rainfall deficit.

Between July 9 and July 15, Jammu & Kashmir recorded a 67% rainfall deficit, Madhya Pradesh 73%, Rajasthan 76%, Maharashtra 78%, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and Manipur 79% each, Andhra Pradesh 92%, Telangana 94%, and Gujarat an alarming 99% deficit. Gujarat, for instance, received only 0.6 mm of rainfall against its normal average of 54.4 mm during the week.

Few States Record Normal Rainfall in the One-and-a-Half Months 

During the first one-and-a-half months of the southwest monsoon, from June 1 to July 17, only a handful of states received normal rainfall. Among the northern states, Punjab recorded a 39% rainfall deficit, while Gujarat in western India received 32% below-normal rainfall. In the south, Kerala recorded a 34% shortfall, while Bihar in eastern India registered a 47% deficit.

The rainfall deficiency was even more severe in the northeastern region, with Manipur recording a 69% deficit and Arunachal Pradesh 51% below normal. States that received normal rainfall during this period include Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Tripura and Mizoram.

Photo: Rainfall status across India from June 1 to July 18. Blue indicates above-normal rainfall, green indicates normal, red indicates below-normal, and yellow indicates a severe rainfall deficit.

Rain Likely Across Most States Over the Next Four to Five Days

According to the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast issued on Saturday afternoon, most parts of the country are expected to receive rainfall over the next four to five days. While some regions are likely to witness scattered showers, others may experience heavy to extremely heavy rainfall.

Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are expected to receive widespread rainfall until July 24, with heavy to very heavy rainfall at several places. The IMD has issued a warning of extremely heavy rainfall over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh on July 20-21, and over Uttarakhand on July 19-20, raising the risk of landslides and flash floods in the hilly regions.

Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi are likely to receive scattered rainfall on July 18-19, followed by widespread rainfall from July 20 to 23. Heavy rainfall is also expected over these regions during July 19-23.

Most parts of Uttar Pradesh are expected to receive rainfall till 24 July. Eastern Uttar Pradesh is likely to witness heavy to very heavy rainfall from July 18 to 20, while heavy rain is expected to continue across the state until July 24.

Rainfall is forecast over western Rajasthan from July 18 to 24 and over eastern Rajasthan until July 23. Heavy rainfall is likely in western Rajasthan during July 22-24 and in eastern Rajasthan during July 20-24.

Cloud cover over different states of India on July 18.

Central India

The monsoon is expected to remain active across central India. Chhattisgarh and eastern Madhya Pradesh are likely to receive widespread rainfall from July 18 to 24, while rainfall activity is expected to intensify over western Madhya Pradesh after July 21.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over western Madhya Pradesh during July 20-24, eastern Madhya Pradesh during July 18-19 and again on July 23-24, and Chhattisgarh during July 20-23. Very heavy rainfall is also likely over Chhattisgarh on July 18-19.

Western India

The monsoon will remain highly active along the west coast. Konkan and Goa are expected to receive widespread rainfall from July 18 to 24, with heavy rainfall likely on July 18 and again during July 21-23.

Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Saurashtra and Kutch are likely to witness scattered rainfall throughout the week, while rainfall activity is expected to increase over Marathwada from July 19. Heavy rainfall is forecast over Gujarat on July 18 and Madhya Maharashtra on July 18 and during July 21-23.

Eastern and North-Eastern India

The monsoon is expected to remain vigorous over eastern India. Jharkhand is likely to receive widespread rainfall until July 23. Bihar is expected to witness widespread rainfall from July 18 to 21, followed by scattered showers until July 24. Heavy rainfall is likely during July 21–24, with very heavy rainfall expected between July 18 and 20. Odisha is likely to receive widespread rainfall during July 18-19, followed by scattered showers, with heavy rainfall expected during July 18-20.

Gangetic West Bengal, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Sikkim are expected to receive widespread rainfall throughout the week. The IMD has issued a warning of extremely heavy rainfall over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on July 18 and 19.

Intermittent rainfall with heavy showers at isolated places is also likely over Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

Southern India

The monsoon is also expected to remain active over southern India. Coastal Karnataka is likely to receive widespread rainfall throughout the week, while Kerala and Lakshadweep are expected to witness widespread rainfall from July 18 to 21, followed by light to moderate showers thereafter.

Intermittent rainfall is likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu. Heavy rainfall is forecast over Kerala during July 18-20, Coastal Karnataka during July 18-19, and interior Karnataka on July 18. Strong surface winds are also likely over Karnataka and Telangana.