NDA seat-sharing in Bihar leaves cracks in BJP-led alliance

The ruling NDA recently finalised its seat-sharing in Bihar for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. It allotted allotting 17 seats to the BJP, 16 to the JD(U), five to the Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and one each to Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM).

But, the distribution of seats has left cracks in the BJP-led alliance in the key state which sends 40 lawmakers to the lower house of Parliament.

Union Food Processing Industries Minister Pashupati Kumar Paras resigned from the government a day after the seat-sharing was announced. President Droupadi Murmu has since accepted his resignation from Union Council of Ministers.

Paras quit accusing the BJP of doing "injustice" with his Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP) by excluding it from the seat-sharing deal with allies for the Lok Sabha polls in Bihar. He was fuming over the BJP giving five seats to the Chirag Paswan-led LJP (Ram Vilas), ignoring his faction's claims. Chirag is the son of Paswan senior and nephew of Paras.

Paras, who had joined the Union minister of food processing industries after a mid-term reshuffle of the Modi Cabinet, is understood to be keen on fighting the polls, thereby opening the prospect of a tie-up with opposition parties, or the alliance led by Rashtriya Janata Dal to fight against his nephew in the Hajipur seat – a pocket borough of his late father Ram Vilas Paswan.

Hours after Paras quit the government, senior BJP leader and Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Vijay Kumar Sinha asserted that it will be "suicidal" for disgruntled allies Paras and Upendra Kushwaha to align with the opposition 'Mahagathbandhan'.

Sinha made the averment reacting to the resignation of Paras from the Union Cabinet, and the absence of Kushwaha or any member of the latter's party when the NDA announced the seat-sharing formula for Bihar. 

Chirag has been given five seats, including Hajipur, currently held by Paras, which the late Paswan represented several times. In the process, the Jamui MP got the better of his uncle and Union minister Paras, who had split their party in 2022. 

There is unease in Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha on getting only one seat, despite its previous avatar Rashtriya Lok Samata Party having won three in 2014, when it was an NDA partner. There were some signs of strains within the NDA over the agreement, with Kushwaha skipping the joint press conference held in Delhi for its announcement. Notably, Kushwaha had quit NDA ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, which he fought as a Mahagathbandhan ally. 

The opposition coalition has been dropping hints that it would "welcome" Paras or any other NDA partner who chose to switch sides. Kushwaha, who had expected at least two seats, has been in talks with the Opposition INDIA bloc and might join the latter’s camp. 

As part of the seat-sharing arrangements, the BJP cornered one more seat than Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led JD(U), as both the major allies had contested an equal number of seats, 17, in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. However, the BJP sought to downplay it, saying that the NDA virtually abided by the 2019 seat-sharing formula. 

A BJP leader said, “Last time, we were three allies. This time, NDA has five parties. JD(U) had 16 sitting seats and the party is contesting as many seats. Similarly, we had 17 sitting seats and we are also contesting as many seats.” The BJP needed to accommodate the HAM(S) and the RLM as well. 

Kushwaha seems to have suffered a loss due to the return of Nitish – who had shifted to the Mahagathbandhan camp in August 2022 – back to the NDA fold in January this year. 

In the 2014 polls, Kushwaha’s then party RLSP had won three seats it contested as part of the NDA. But he had then got more weightage in the NDA because Nitish had parted ways with it. 

Kushwaha’s space in the NDA has shrunk further following the rise of state BJP chief Samrat Choudhary, the deputy CM, who also belongs to the Kushwaha community. 

Paras, who is currently Hajipur MP, failed to get any seat for his National LJP faction from the BJP, which preferred Chirag over him in view of its assessment that the latter was the “real claimant” to his father late Ram Vilas Paswan’s legacy and would hold on to the Paswan vote. Chirag, however, had to concede one of the LJP’s sitting seats, Nawada, to the BJP. 

If Paras, who is said to be in touch with the INDIA camp, switches sides, there could be a contest between Chirag and Paras in Hajipur, the seat that Ram Vilas represented nine times. 

Declaring the seat-sharing pact, BJP national general secretary in charge of Bihar Vinod Tawde claimed that the NDA allies have clinched it in “48 hours”. The NDA, which had swept the state in the 2019 polls by winning 39 out of the state’s 40 seats, has now set a target of winning all the seats. 

“Although the NDA parties will fight on their respective symbols, we are fighting together – and all allies will fight with all their might,” Tawde told the press conference, flanked by the JD(U)’s Sanjay Kumar Jha and other allies. 

In 2019, the BJP, JD(U) and LJP together garnered 53% votes polled in the state. 

Although the return of Nitish has boosted the NDA’s prospects, the ruling coalition is likely to face a more formidable RJD-led Opposition in this Lok Sabha election. 

The JD(U) conceded its Karakat seat to Kushwaha’s party, although it managed to get Sheohar from the BJP. Former RJD MP Lovely Anand, wife of ex-MP Anand Mohan, is likely to contest from Sheohar. Lovely and her son Chetan Anand – who was among three RJD MLAs to defect during Nitish’s trust vote – joined the JD(U) Monday. HAM(S) chief and ex-CM Jitan Ram Manjhi would contest from the Gaya seat, which is currently represented by the JD (U)’s Vijay Kumar.

The BJP will contest the West Champaran, East Champaran, Aurangabad, Madhubani, Araria, Darbhanga, Saran, Ujiyarpur, Begusarai, Nawada, Patna Saheb, Pataliputra, Ara, Buxar and Sasaram seats. The JD(U) will contest from the Valmiki Nagar, Sitamarhi, Janjharpur, Supaul, Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnia, Madhepura, Gopalganj, Siwan, Bhagalpur, Banka, Munger, Nalanda, Jehanabad and Sheohar constituencies. The LJP (Ram Vilas) will contest the Vaishali, Hajipur, Samastipur, Khagaria and Jamui seats. 

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi setting a target of 400 seats for the NDA, the poll outcome in Bihar would be crucial for the BJP.