Global Grains Output to Hit Record in 2025-26 Amid Bumper Corn Crop, IGC Says

World grains production is projected to reach an all-time high of 2.373 billion tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year, largely driven by expectations for a bumper corn crop, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its latest Grain Market Report. The IGC revised its corn forecast upward to a record 1.274 billion tonnes, a 5% increase over the previous year. Meanwhile, wheat and rice projections remained largely unchanged from last month. Overall, total grains output is set to rise by 3% year-on-year.

Despite higher output, inventories are projected to remain steady year-on-year as consumption growth keeps pace with supply increases. The IGC noted that coarse grain stocks are likely to expand slightly, while wheat carryovers may decline for a third straight year.

Trade in total grains (wheat, maize, barley and others) is forecast at 424 million tonnes, up slightly from last month’s estimate. However, volumes are expected to remain below average due to reduced Chinese import demand, which is projected to fall by 36 million tonnes compared to the previous year.

India's role in global grains market
India plays a notable role in the International Grains Council’s (IGC) latest grain market outlook. In 2024/25, India is a key contributor to a downgraded estimate in global wheat food use, reflecting reduced domestic consumption. However, the country also supports upward revisions in global rice estimates, as rice production is raised by 3 million tonnes due to an improved forecast for India. Looking ahead to 2025/26, India's industrial demand - particularly for ethanol - leads to a higher global grain uptake projection. Furthermore, India is expected to maintain strong export momentum, with rice shipments forecast to exceed 23 million tonnes in both 2025 and 2026, accounting for about 40% of global rice trade. These developments underline India’s significant influence on both the consumption and trade sides of global grain and rice markets.

Tight Balances in 2024-25
Looking at the current 2024-25 season, total grains production is forecast at 2.303 billion tonnes, 3 million tonnes lower than last month’s estimate. While there were modest downward revisions for wheat and millet, the bigger change came on the demand side, with projected consumption cut by 8 million tonnes to 2.328 billion.

The adjustment reflects reduced wheat food use in India and weaker demand for maize as animal feed. Nonetheless, carryover stocks for 2024-25 were revised 4 million tonnes higher month-on-month to 580 million tonnes, although that figure remains the lowest in a decade.

Trade for the season is pegged at 418 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from the previous forecast, largely due to stronger-than-expected maize shipments to sub-Saharan Africa.

Soybeans and Rice: Record Consumption and Stocks
The IGC reported few changes to the 2024-25 global soybean outlook, with both consumption and inventories expected to hit record levels. Trade is also projected at a record 181 million tonnes, up 1% year-on-year.

Looking ahead to 2025-26, soybean production is forecast to rise by 3% to a record 428 million tonnes, fueled by larger South American harvests. Consumption is projected to increase further due to growing demand across feed, food, and industrial sectors, while stocks are expected to remain elevated. Global import demand is seen steady year-on-year, as reduced shipments to China are balanced by growth in smaller markets.

Rice production in 2024-25 is forecast 3 million tonnes higher month-on-month, mainly due to upward revisions for India. Corresponding increases in consumption and inventories are also expected. For 2025-26, rice output is projected to hit another record high, with strong contributions from key exporters and China.

Import demand for rice is forecast to approach 60 million tonnes in 2026, up 2% year-on-year, driven by buyers in Africa and Asia. Indian exports are projected to make up about 40% of global trade volumes.