Food Grain Production In Crop Year 2023-24 To Decrease By 41 Lakh Tonnes

The data pertaining to agricultural production and the growth rate of agriculture and allied sectors indicate a concerning trend. The recently released production figures for the current crop year (2023-24) by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare further highlight this situation.

As per the ministry's second advance estimates, the total food grain production during the Kharif and Rabi seasons of the crop year 2023-24 may decrease by approximately 41 lakh tonnes compared to the previous year.

However, there is an estimated increase of 15 lakh tonnes in wheat production compared to last year, potentially reaching 112 million tonnes. Last year 11.05 crore tonnes of wheat was produced.

Rice production during the Kharif season is projected to be 11.14 crore tonnes, an increase of 9.46 lakh tonnes from last year. However, Rabi rice production is anticipated to decrease to 123.5 lakh tonnes from 150 lakh tonnes last year, indicating a reduction of approximately 26 lakh tonnes.

The total food grain production for the Kharif season of 2023-24 is estimated to be 15.42 crore tonnes, around 15 lakh tonnes less than the previous year. Similarly, Rabi food grain production is expected to be 15.52 crore tonnes, down from 15.78 million tonnes the previous year, representing a potential decrease of around 26 lakh tonnes.

Pulses production during the Kharif season is expected to decline to 71.18 lakh tonnes from 76.21 lakh tonnes last year, while Rabi pulses production is projected to remain nearly the same as last year at 163.24 lakh tonnes. Among the pulses, Pigeon pea production is anticipated to remain steady at 33.39 lakh tonnes, whereas Urad production during Kharif is estimated to decrease to 15.50 lakh tonnes from 17.68 lakh tonnes last year. Kharif moong production is also expected to decrease from 17.18 lakh tonnes to 14.05 lakh tonnes.

In the Rabi season, gram production is estimated to marginally decline to 121.61 lakh tonnes, while lentil production is anticipated to increase to 16.36 lakh tonnes from 15.59 lakh tonnes last year.

Oilseed production has suffered a setback in the Kharif season 2023-24 and it may decline by about 33 lakh tonnes to 228.42 lakh tonnes as compared to last year. Rabi season oilseed production is likely to be 137.56 lakh tonnes, around four lakh tonnes less than the previous year.

Mustard production is estimated at 126.96 lakh tonnes, slightly higher than the previous year when it was 126.43 lakh tonnes. However, soybean production is expected to decline from 149.85 lakh tonnes last year to 125.62 lakh tonnes this year.

Rabi maize production is likely to decline from 116.9 lakh tonnes to 97.5 lakh tonnes, while Kharif maize production is estimated to decrease from 236.74 lakh tonnes to 227.20 lakh tonnes. Despite efforts to diversify crops, the decline in production of pulses, oilseeds, and maize presents a new challenge for the government.

The government has prioritised increasing food grain production, yet the production of these essential grains has also decreased. Coarse grain production for the Kharif season of 2023-24 is estimated to be 129 lakh tonnes, down from 139 lakh tonnes in the previous Kharif season. However, Rabi season coarse grain production is expected to be slightly higher at 24.88 lakh tonnes compared to 23.22 lakh tonnes last year.

There is also an anticipated decline in sugarcane production this year. It will decrease by 441 lakh tons as compared to last year to 4464 lakh tonnes. This represents a decrease of about 9 percent. Similarly, cotton production is estimated to decline from 336 lakh to 323 lakh bales. The cotton crop has suffered losses this year due to inclement weather and outbreak of pink bollworm.

The Ministry of Agriculture notes that Rabi crop production estimates are based on initial sown area reports and average yield, and therefore, these figures may be subject to updates. Production figures for various summer crops will be included in the upcoming third advance estimates.