ISMA estimates sugar production at 333 lt, exports at 75 lt

In its meeting on March 4, the Committee of the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) agreed that the sugarcane availability in Maharashtra and Karnataka is higher than what was expected earlier.

Accordingly, ISMA has revised its sugar production estimate for 2021-22 sugar season (SS) for Maharashtra as 126 lakh tonnes or lt (after diversion into ethanol) against 117 lt in its Second Advance Estimates. Similarly, Karnataka is now expected to produce 55 lt as against 45.21 lt estimated earlier. However, not much change is expected in other States, including Uttar Pradesh (UP), and they are expected to produce 152 lt of sugar.

Thus, the all-India sugar production in 2021-22 SS (October to September) is expected at 333 lt, considering the diversion of 34 lt of sugar equivalent into ethanol.

These estimates are based on the sugar production data available till February 28, 2022. Up to this date, 516 sugar mills in the country have together produced 252.87 lt of sugar, as compared to 234.83 lt produced by 503 mills last season till 28 February.

In Maharashtra, 197 sugar mills produced 97.15 lt till 28 February, compared with 84.85 lt produced last year during the same period. In the case of Karnataka, 72 sugar mills operated in the current season and have produced 50.84 lt as compared to 40.83 lt produced by 66 sugar mills during the same period last year.

The situation in UP, however, is not as good as last year. 112 sugar mills in the state have produced 68.64 lt of sugar till 28 February this year, compared with 74.20 lt produced by the same number of mills up to the same date last year.

In Gujarat, 15 mills have produced 7.93 lt of sugar this year as compared to 7.49 lt last year in the corresponding period. In Tamil Nadu, 26 sugar mills have produced 4.53 lt this year as compared to 3.22 lt last year. The remaining states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Bihar, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Odisha have collectively produced 23.78 lt of sugar.

On the export front, it is reported that over 60 lt of export contracts have already been entered into so far. Out of that, about 42 lt is estimated to have been physically exported till the end of February 2022. Another 12-13 lt of sugar is expected to be exported in March, taking the total to 54-55 lt.

Considering the recent International Sugar Organization (ISO) report indicating a global deficit of around 1.93 mt for 2021-22 SS and interest of exporters to buy more Indian sugar, ISMA members agreed that sugar exports will be higher than previously expected. India will export 75 lt of sugar in the current season as against 60 lt estimated earlier.

As per reports from sugar mills and estimations made by ISMA, sugar sales by end of January 2022 have been estimated at 91.23 lt, as against 87.69 lt in the corresponding period last year, which is higher by 3.5 lt. Further domestic sugar sales quota released by the Government up to March 2022 is higher by 6 lt as against the corresponding period last year. Considering the above, ISMA estimates domestic sugar consumption in the current season to be at 272 lt.

Considering an opening stock of about 82 lt as of 1 October 2021, domestic consumption of 272 lt, sugar exports of 75 lt and the estimated production of 333 lt, the closing stock as of 30 September 2022 is expected to be at around 68 lt.