India’s sugar production for the 2024-25 season is projected to decline by 19% to 25.8 million tonnes, down from 31.9 million tonnes last season, according to the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) second estimate.
The revised estimate, released on Tuesday, is 0.72 million tonnes lower than AISTA’s initial forecast of 26.52 million tonnes. The downward revision is primarily due to lower output in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat.
Maharashtra, the country’s major sugar producer, is expected to see a sharp decline to 8 million tonnes from 11 million tonnes last season. Uttar Pradesh, the second-largest producer, is projected to maintain its output at 9 million tonnes, though this remains below last year’s 10.4 million tonnes. Karnataka’s production is estimated at 4.10 million tonnes, slightly higher than the previous estimate but still below last season’s 5.3 million tonnes.
AISTA noted that the final figures could fluctuate by ±2%. Meanwhile, sucrose diversion for ethanol production is expected to reach 3.8 million tonnes, up significantly from the earlier estimate of 0.4 million tonnes. With opening stocks of 7.98 million tonnes, total sugar availability is estimated at 33.78 million tonnes, surpassing domestic consumption of 29 million tonnes. Exports are expected to be around 1 million tonnes, leaving closing stocks at 3.78 million tonnes.
According to the recently released second advance estimates of major agricultural crop production (Kharif and Rabi) for 2024-25, sugarcane production is expected to decline compared to last year. The estimated production is 4,350.79 lakh tonnes, 181 lakh tonnes less than last year’s 4,531.58 lakh tonnes.
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