Sugar production in 2022-23 estimated at 365 lt

After accounting for the reduction of 45 lakh tonnes (lt) in sugar production due to the diversion of cane juice/syrup and B-molasses to ethanol, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) estimates sugar production in 2022-23 sugar season (SS) at around 365 lt of sugar. These figures have been arrived at in the First Advance Estimates of sugar production released on October 17.

The net sugar production in 2022-23 SS before considering diversion towards ethanol is estimated to be higher by about 5 per cent at around 410 lt, against 392 lt produced in 2021-22 SS.

During the year 2022-23, since the target of 12 per cent blending is expected to be achieved, a total of about 545 crore litres of ethanol would be required and supplied.

In July 2022, ISMA had released its preliminary estimates of net sugar production at 355 lt for 2022-23 SS, based on the first survey of satellite mapping carried out in June 2022. This was estimated after considering a diversion of 45 lt of sugar for the production of ethanol.

The second set of satellite images of sugarcane crop acreage across the country has been procured in the first week of October 2022.  Based on the satellite images so procured, the total acreage under sugarcane in the country is estimated to be around 59 lakh hectares in 2022-23 SS, which is about 6 per cent higher than the 2021-22 SS cane area of around 56 lakh ha.

With an opening balance as on 1 October 2022 of around 55 lt, estimated sugar production for the season 2022-23 of around 365 lt and estimated domestic sales of around 275 lt will leave additional sugar at around 90 lt, which needs to be exported to maintain the same closing stock.

The window of timeline for exports in the current year appears to be quite short for Indian sugar as CS Brazil sugar production is expected to bounce back to the normal level of around 360 lt during its 2023-24 SS, which is due to start in April 2023. Brazilian sugar will hit the global market by May 2023. Further, most mills have already contracted sugar for export supplies in the current season. So, an early announcement of sugar export policy by the Government shall be highly appreciated, says the ISMA press release.

The sugarcane crushing for the season 2022-23 has started in the southern region and is expected to start soon in other regions also. Therefore, a better picture would emerge after a few months when the actual trend of yields and sugar recoveries would become available. 

As has been the practice, ISMA will again review the sugarcane and sugar production estimates in January 2023, when the trends of the above are available.