Ground Report: No wave, no noise; voter's silence signals unexpected results

Shamli, Kairana, Gangoh, Muzaffarnagar

The campaign for the first phase of Lok Sabha elections has ended. This time the results in Muzaffarnagar and surrounding seats, which created a wave for BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in North India, may throw a surprise. 

BJP's alliance with Rashtriya Lok Dal, which has influence on about a dozen seats in Western Uttar Pradesh, will be beneficial for whom and for how long will the bond last, too will also be decided by the election results. This time there is no wave in the elections. Also, communal issues do not seem to have any significant impact. Voter silence can lead to surprising outcomes. 

In the first phase, voting is on April 19 in Kairana, Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Nagina, Moradabad, Rampur and Pilibhit in Uttar Pradesh. Apart from Rampur and Pilibhit, the remaining seats are under the influence of Rashtriya Lok Dal. BJP hopes that it will get the benefit of alliance with RLD. Bijnor seat is one of the two RLD seats where voting is scheduled in the first phase. 

After the alliance with RLD, the contest in the seats of Western UP, which were considered easy for BJP, has become interesting as the elections are approaching. Some seats are poised for a direct contest between the NDA and the INDIA bloc, while at some others a situation of triangular conflict has arisen.  

There is an interesting contest on Kairana and Muzaffarnagar seats which has become a question of prestige for BJP and RLD. Kairana seat is spread over two districts, Shamli and Saharanpur. In this, all the three assembly seats of Shamli are Shamli, Kairana, Thana Bhawan; and Gangoh and Nakur assembly seats of Saharanpur. Here BJP has again given ticket to sitting MP Pradeep Chaudhary, while SP has fielded Iqra Hasan, whose mother Tabassum Hasan and father Munawwar Hasan have been MPs from this seat. 

The flamboyant and highly educated Iqra, who has studied in London, has strengthened her election considerably. The special thing is that not only the Muslim voters of SP but also a part of the traditional voters of RLD can move towards Iqra due to their displeasure with Pradeep Chaudhary. 

BJP had lost all three seats of Shamli in the 2022 assembly elections. The environment created towards BJP due to the farmers' movement and the Muslim-Jat alliance were the reasons for these results. But now RLD has an alliance with BJP. 

Rashtriya Lok Dal President Jayant Chaudhary had held a rally in Jat-dominated Nagar Panchayat Oon in support of BJP candidate Pradeep Chaudhary. Despite this, a section of RLD supporters is going against Choudhary regarding his work and attitude during his current tenure. Iqra is trying to make a place among women, getting the advantage of being young and highly educated. However, the negative image of his brother and Kairana MLA Nahid Hasan can harm him. Iqra had handled the entire campaign of Naheed in the assembly elections. Therefore, he is already a known face among the voters.

Both the assembly seats of Kairana Lok Sabha in Saharanpur district are with BJP. Of these, Nakur seat was won by BJP with a margin of about 500 votes. Chaudhary, who comes from Gurjar community, belongs to Saharanpur district. In this seat also in Saharanpur district, the trend of Jat voters is visible against Choudhary. 

Instead of fielding a Muslim from Kairana, BSP has fielded Shripal Rana. This move of Mayawati has also increased the problems of BJP. Kshatriya Mahapanchayat was held against BJP on April 7 in Nanauta, which falls in Kairana Lok Sabha constituency. From there, the displeasure of the Thakurs regarding BJP came to light. Traditionally, Munawwar Hasan's family has also been supported by a section of the Gurjar community. This factor can also work in Iqra 's favor. 

Muzaffarnagar Lok Sabha seat has become a high-profile seat because of Dr. Sanjeev Balyan, Minister of State at the Centre. He has won elections from here in 2014 and 2019. In 2019, he had defeated Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Chaudhary Ajit Singh by a close margin. But the interesting thing is that this time Jayant Chaudhary, son of Chaudhary Ajit Singh, is campaigning for Sanjeev Balyan. 

On the other hand, SP candidate is Harendra Malik, who has been MLA several times and Rajya Sabha MP once. BJP has only one seat in the five assembly seats of Muzaffarnagar Lok Sabha. The remaining two assembly seats Charthawal and Sardhana are with SP while two seats Budhana and Khatauli are with Rashtriya Lok Dal. 

Due to the alliance of BJP and RLD, Sanjeev Baliyan may get some benefit from Jat votes. Although Harendra Malik is also a Jat. The presence of Malik in the fray has made the competition tough. Sanjeev Balyan has been an MP for ten years and a minister in both the Modi governments. He has done a lot of work in his field. But his relations with two powerful Thakur leaders of Western UP, Sangeet Som and Suresh Rana, are not considered good. Both had lost in the last assembly elections. Sangeet Som's bitterness towards Sanjeev Baliyan was clearly visible in a video that went viral recently.   

Thakurs have held rallies in both Kairana and Muzaffarnagar seats and called for voting against BJP. This is the reason why Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath held meetings in favor of Sanjeev Balyan to reduce his anger. Like Kairana, in Muzaffarnagar too, BSP has fielded Dara Singh Prajapati instead of the Muslim candidate. Sanjeev Balyan may suffer some loss due to the Prajapati caste candidate, who is considered a supporter of BJP. Whereas Harendra Malik's claim depends on the support of Thakur and Jat voters apart from the core voters of SP.    

The situation of RLD candidate Chandan Chauhan in the Bijnor Lok Sabha seat is considered better. SP has given ticket to Deepak Saini, son of MLA Ramavatar Saini, while BSP has fielded Jat candidate Bijendra Chaudhary. Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Ravan is contesting in Nagina. Earlier he was expecting to get this seat from SP but SP has fielded its candidate there and BSP also has a candidate there. The Dalit- Muslim alliance has been successful on this reserved seat. But this time there are possibilities of a multi-cornered contest. The lack of mobilization of Dalit-Muslim voters in favor of any one candidate can benefit the BJP in Nagina. 

Saharanpur seat has come in the Congress's share from where it has given ticket to the old candidate Imran Masood. There has always been a section of Muslim voters supporting Imran Masood who has created controversy with his statements. This seat was won by BSP's Fazlur Rehman in 2019. 

But this time BSP changed the candidate there and gave the ticket to Majid Ali. Whereas BJP has fielded Raghav Lakhanpal, who was MP from Saharanpur in 2014. Raghav was defeated in a very close contest in the 2019 elections with 4.91 lakh votes. This time there are possibilities of a triangular contest in Saharanpur.