USDA Cuts Global Grain Production Forecast; India's Wheat Output Retained at 121 MT, Rice at 150 MT

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has slightly lowered its July forecast for global agricultural production for the 2026-27 marketing year, with lower estimates for wheat, rice and coarse grains offset by higher projections for oilseeds and cotton. According to the latest World Agricultural Production report, global wheat production has been revised down to 819.97 million tonnes (MT) from 820.06 MT projected in June, coarse grain output to 1,591.95 MT from 1,594.49 MT, and rice production to 537.2 MT. In contrast, global oilseed production has been raised to a record 720 MT, while cotton output is now pegged at 117.3 million bales. India’s wheat forecast has been retained at a record 121 MT, rice at 150 MT, and corn at 52 MT, reflecting stable crop prospects despite lower coarse grain output.

Wheat

India is expected to harvest a record 121 MT of wheat in 2026-27, unchanged from June but higher than last year's 117.95 MT. Harvested area is estimated at 33.5 million hectares, up from 32.8 million hectares, with average yield improving slightly to 3.61 tonnes per hectare.

Globally, wheat production is forecast at 819.97 MT, nearly 24 MT below last year's record crop. China will remain the largest producer with 141 MT, followed by Russia at 88.5 MT, European Union at 136 MT, Canada at 34 MT, and Australia at 28 MT. Russia's winter wheat benefited from favourable rainfall, while Canada's output declined as farmers shifted acreage to canola and barley.

Rice

India will continue as the world's largest rice producer with 150 MT (milled basis), unchanged from both June and the previous year. Global rice production has been marginally reduced to 537.2 MT from 537.8 MT projected in June and remains below last year's 545.7 MT. China is expected to produce 147 MT, followed by Bangladesh (39.4 MT), Indonesia (33.6 MT), Vietnam (25.7 MT), Thailand (20.3 MT) and Pakistan (9.6 MT).

Corn

India's corn production is projected at 52 MT, unchanged from June but lower than last year's record 55.09 MT. Harvested area remains at 14.41 million hectares, while yield is expected at 3.61 tonnes per hectare, indicating lower productivity rather than reduced acreage.

Global corn production has been cut to 1,297.09 MT, down 3.3 MT from June and about 31 MT below last year. The decline is mainly due to severe drought and record heat in France, which is expected to harvest its smallest corn crop since 1990-91.

The United States is forecast to produce 406.4 MT, followed by China (307 MT), Brazil (139 MT), Argentina (55 MT), Ukraine (30 MT) and Russia (15.8 MT). While Argentina and South Africa benefited from favourable weather, Kenya's crop suffered from prolonged dryness, and Pakistan's 2025-26 estimate was lowered due to flood-related yield losses.

Sorghum and Coarse Grains

India's sorghum production has been retained at 5.4 MT, while Brazil's crop has been raised to 6.2 MT, up 19% from June due to higher acreage driven by sorghum's lower production costs and drought tolerance.

India's total coarse grain production is projected at 71.3 MT, unchanged from June but 4.4% lower than last year's 74.59 MT. Although harvested area is expected to increase to 27.98 million hectares, lower yields of 2.55 tonnes per hectare are likely to reduce output.

Worldwide coarse grain production has been revised down to 1,591.95 MT, nearly 32.4 MT below last year. China is expected to produce 315.95 MT, Brazil 147.21 MT, Argentina 64.22 MT, European Union 135.44 MT, and Russia 38.87 MT.

Oilseeds and Cotton

Global oilseed production has been increased to a record 720 MT, driven by higher sunflower seed and soybean output. India is expected to produce 43 MT, slightly above last year's 41.8 MT.

The increase is led by Russia's record 20.7 MT sunflower seed crop, while Brazil's oilseed outlook has improved and Canada is set to harvest a record rapeseed area supported by strong biofuel demand.

India's cotton production has been maintained at 24 million 480-pound bales, marginally above last year's 23.8 million bales. Global cotton production has been raised to 117.3 million bales, led by Brazil's revised estimate of 18 million bales, supported by record yields despite lower planted area.

Overall, the USDA's July assessment presents a mixed global outlook. Weather-related losses have reduced production forecasts for wheat, rice, corn and coarse grains, while oilseeds and cotton continue to show strong growth. For India, the report underlines resilient crop prospects, led by record wheat production and stable output of rice, oilseeds and cotton, even as lower corn yields weigh on overall coarse grain production.