India sees warmest October on record, November also expected to be warmer

India recorded its hottest October since 1901, with average temperatures reaching 26.92°C, which is 1.23°C above normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday. The minimum temperature also rose to 21.85°C, higher than the normal of 20.01°C. The IMD also predicted a warmer November, without indicating any signs of the upcoming winter.

Addressing a press conference, IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra linked this unusual warmth to the absence of western disturbances and easterly winds caused by low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal. These factors have prevented temperatures from dropping, particularly in northwestern India.

Mohapatra noted that temperatures in the northwestern plains are expected to remain 2-5°C above normal for at least the next two weeks before gradually declining. The IMD also clarified that it does not consider November as part of winter; January and February are viewed as peak winter months, with early signs of cold typically emerging in December.

Meanwhile, the southern region, including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and parts of Karnataka, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall in November due to the northeast monsoon. The IMD predicts normal to above-normal rainfall across most of India, except in northwest and parts of central India.

The IMD attributes the delayed onset of colder temperatures partly to neutral El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which have disrupted seasonal patterns. A gradual shift toward La Niña conditions is expected by December, potentially bringing colder airwaves to India as winter progresses. La Niña usually drives cold air flows from Afghanistan and the Hindu Kush, influencing India’s winter temperatures.