Global Wheat Output Steady for 2025 as FAO Forecasts Mixed Cereal Trends

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has projected global wheat production in 2025 to remain stable at 795 million tonnes, matching last year's output, with only minor revisions due to recent weather developments across key growing regions.

In Europe, improved conditions in southern countries have lifted wheat yield expectations, offsetting drought concerns in northern areas, including parts of the UK and northern EU nations. However, the Russian Federation’s forecast remains unchanged, with a reduced wheat area and adverse weather likely to lead to lower output. Ukraine’s wheat production is expected to remain below average despite some April rainfall recovery, reflecting ongoing impacts of the conflict.

North America presents a mixed picture. Canada’s wheat output is expected to match last year’s levels, while drought in parts of the U.S. may lead to a slight decline in production. In Asia, India’s wheat forecast has been trimmed due to hot and dry conditions, though irrigation is expected to support a record harvest. Pakistan’s output has been revised upward, with yields projected to exceed the five-year average.

Elsewhere, the outlook is varied. Near East countries like Iran and Türkiye are facing below-average forecasts due to earlier rainfall deficits. Northern Africa remains mixed, with Morocco likely to see a poor harvest, while Egypt and Tunisia benefit from irrigation. In the southern hemisphere, Argentina’s forecast has improved on better-than-expected rainfall, while Australia’s output is expected to decline year-on-year but remain above 30 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, harvesting of coarse grains such as maize is beginning in southern hemisphere nations. Brazil anticipates higher yields due to favorable weather and increased planting area, while South Africa’s production is set to rebound after a poor 2024. In contrast, Argentina's maize forecast remains below average due to reduced planting amid disease concerns. Early estimates from the U.S. point to a 5% rise in coarse grain plantings, hinting at a solid increase in 2025 production.

Global Cereal Outlook
FAO’s latest estimate for total world cereal production in 2024 is 2.848 billion tonnes, down 1.1 million tonnes from last month and slightly below 2023 levels, mainly due to lower maize output. However, rice production is expected to hit a new record in 2024/25 at 543.6 million tonnes, boosted by increased planting.

Global cereal utilization in 2024/25 is forecast at 2.87 billion tonnes - up 28.2 million tonnes (1%) from the previous season. Wheat utilization is slightly raised, driven by higher use in the EU and Argentina. Coarse grain use remains stable, while rice utilization is expected to reach a new peak of 539.4 million tonnes, led by stronger demand in African nations.

Cereal stockpiles, however, are expected to shrink. World cereal stocks at the close of the 2024/25 season are forecast at 868.2 million tonnes, a 1.9% year-on-year decline. Wheat and coarse grain stocks are down, largely due to reduced inventories in the EU, Türkiye, and the U.S., while rice reserves are set to reach a new high of 205.7 million tonnes, led by stock build-ups in China, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

Cereal Trade Down, Rice Trade Up
Global cereal trade is projected to fall to 478.6 million tonnes in 2024/25, a 6.8% drop from the previous year. Wheat trade is expected to decline 7.4% due to reduced exports from Russia and lower demand from Türkiye. Coarse grain trade is set to fall 8.2%, with decreases in barley, maize, and sorghum shipments, particularly due to reduced demand from China. On a positive note, global rice trade is forecast to rise by 1.2% in 2025, reaching a record 60.4 million tonnes.