Climate Change Caused 35 percent of Global Soybean Crop Failure in 2012: Study

A new study has revealed that climate change was responsible for over one-third of the simultaneous soybean crop failures that occurred across Argentina, Brazil, and the United States (US) in 2012. The research, published in Communications Earth & Environment, analyzed the impact of extreme heat and dry conditions that affected the three countries during that year. Using climate and crop models, researchers estimated what the soybean yield would have been in a world without global warming. The findings indicate that climate change -through higher temperatures and drier soils - accounted for 35% of the total yield reduction in 2012.

Soybeans are one of the “big four” staple crops, alongside maize, rice, and wheat, which together supply nearly 65% of global calorie consumption and cover 45% of the world’s planted farmlands. According to Carbon Brief, global soybean production in 2021 reached approximately 365 million tonnes. However, less than 4% of this harvest was consumed directly by humans, with most of it processed into animal feed, vegetable oil, or biofuel.

As the largest traded agricultural commodity, soybeans account for over 10% of the total value of global agricultural trade. The majority of the world’s soybean production is concentrated in three regions—the US, Brazil, and Argentina—which collectively supply around 75% of the global annual soybean output. This high concentration of production in just three regions makes the global soybean supply highly vulnerable to regional production shocks. Climate-induced shocks, in particular, can severely impact soybean yields, especially when simultaneous hot and dry extremes occur across multiple production hotspots. Such occurrences can destabilize the global food system by disrupting supply chains and driving up prices.

2012: A Case Study of Climate Impact on Soybeans
The 2012 crop failure serves as a stark example of climate-induced shocks affecting global food security. During that year, hot and dry conditions across the Americas led to a 10% decline in global soybean production, which was accompanied by record-high price spikes. Lead author Dr. Raed Hamed, a climate scientist at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, noted that the magnitude of the 2012 simultaneous crop failure made it a significant case for study, despite the event occurring more than a decade ago.

The low yield in 2012 followed the conclusion of a three-year La Niña event. La Niña, the “cold phase” of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is associated with cooler temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. However, it typically triggers hotter and drier conditions in southeastern South America and the US. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2012 La Niña was the third-warmest on record, exacerbating adverse conditions for soybean crops.

Regional Disparities in Impact
The study highlighted significant regional variations in the impact of the 2012 event. In the US, climate change resulted in a 3.5% decrease in soybean production compared to a scenario without warming. In southeastern South America, however, the impact was far more severe, with a 222% decline in production. Interestingly, central Brazil experienced a 14% improvement in production, suggesting that climate change had a positive effect on soybean yields in that region.

The study underscores the vulnerability of global food systems to climate-induced shocks, particularly in regions that dominate the production of key crops such as soybeans. When extreme weather events occur simultaneously in major producing areas, the ripple effects can destabilize global markets, threaten food security, and place additional strain on agricultural-dependent economies.

With climate change expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, the study emphasizes the urgent need for adaptive measures and improved climate resilience in agricultural systems to safeguard global food supplies.