Global Wheat Production to Decline Nearly 3% in 2026 Despite Record Cereal Supply Outlook

Global wheat production is expected to decline in 2026 even as overall cereal output remains at historically high levels. World wheat production is forecast to fall by nearly 3 percent to around 810 million tonnes in 2026, mainly due to reduced sowings triggered by softer crop prices and expectations of yields returning to average levels after the highs recorded in the previous year. Despite the decline, global wheat output will remain above the five-year average.

At the same time, global cereal production for 2025 has been revised slightly upward to a record 3,029 million tonnes, reflecting higher estimates for maize and rice production. The strong performance of these crops is expected to keep global grain supplies comfortable even as wheat production declines. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations has said this in its latest report.

Across major wheat-producing regions, planting decisions and weather conditions are shaping the production outlook. In the European Union, weaker wheat prices have contributed to a reduction in winter wheat sowings. Although eastern and northern regions experienced cold spells, generally mild and favourable weather conditions elsewhere are expected to support yields that remain above average. As a result, wheat production in the EU is expected to decline only modestly and remain close to the five-year average.

In the United Kingdom, farmers have shifted some land away from barley toward wheat. Combined with generally favourable planting conditions and an expected recovery in yields after dry weather reduced output in 2025, this shift is likely to push wheat production closer to average levels in 2026.

The Russian Federation is expected to see a moderate decline in wheat production. Wheat acreage has been trending downward as farmers increasingly favour oilseeds, which offer relatively stronger returns. Dry weather in key producing regions during the planting season has also weighed on crop prospects. In neighbouring Ukraine, wheat production is forecast to remain broadly stable compared with the previous year, supported by relatively steady planted areas and normal yield expectations. However, output will remain well below pre-conflict levels.

In North America, wheat production trends vary between countries. In the United States, wheat output is projected to decline year-on-year due to reduced sowings during the planting season when prices were weak. Yields are also expected to fall slightly from last year’s elevated levels, though overall production should remain above the five-year average. In Canada, wheat plantings are expected to increase slightly, driven mainly by expanded soft wheat cultivation. However, assuming yields return closer to average levels, total production is still likely to decline compared with the previous year’s strong harvest.

In Asia, wheat production prospects are generally favourable. In India, record sowings encouraged by government incentives are expected to support production close to last year’s all-time high. While dryness and higher temperatures in parts of northern states have affected crop development to some extent, the overall outlook remains positive. Pakistan is also expected to harvest a favourable wheat crop, as above-average vegetation conditions in major producing areas have been supported by adequate irrigation supplies. In China, field assessments conducted in mid-February indicate generally favourable crop conditions, with production expected to remain broadly stable year-on-year.

Beyond wheat, production prospects for other cereals remain strong. In the Southern Hemisphere, maize output is expected to remain above average in several key exporting countries. Brazil is forecast to produce another strong maize crop due to favourable weather conditions and expanded planting supported by robust export demand, despite some downward pressure on prices following abundant supplies in 2025. Argentina is also expected to produce an above-average maize harvest, supported by larger plantings and forecasts of normal rainfall during the latter part of the growing season.

South Africa is likely to harvest a second consecutive large maize crop in 2026. Although the output may be slightly lower than last year due to irregular weather in some provinces, production will still remain well above average thanks to large planted areas.

Rice production is also projected to remain robust. Global rice output in 2025-26 is forecast to reach a record 563.4 million tonnes (milled basis), up 2.1 percent from the previous year. The increase is expected to be driven by major producers including Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India and Indonesia, which are forecast to lead annual production growth.

With strong maize and rice production and global cereal stocks projected to rise to about 940.5 million tonnes by the close of the 2026 seasons, the global grain market is expected to remain well supplied despite the anticipated decline in wheat output. International cereal trade in 2025-26 is also forecast to rebound to 501.7 million tonnes, the second-highest level on record.