Southwest Monsoon Advances Towards Kerala as IMD Warns of Heatwave Across North and Central India

The southwest monsoon has advanced further over parts of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and the Andaman region, raising hopes of early relief from intense summer heat in several parts of the country. According to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) latest All India Weather Summary and Forecast Bulletin, the monsoon has now covered most parts of the Andaman Sea, the entire Andaman & Nicobar Islands, and parts of the east-central Bay of Bengal.

The IMD said conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to progress further into additional parts of the southeast Arabian Sea, Comorin area, southwest and southeast Bay of Bengal, and remaining areas of the Andaman Sea during the next three to four days.

The weather agency has projected that the southwest monsoon is likely to make its onset over Kerala around May 26, with a model error margin of plus or minus four days. The development is being closely watched by farmers, agricultural markets and policymakers because the monsoon provides nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall and remains crucial for kharif sowing.

Alongside the monsoon advance, the IMD has forecast widespread rainfall activity across several regions over the coming week. Northeastern states including Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura are likely to receive scattered to fairly widespread rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall has also been forecast in parts of the Northeast between May 18 and May 24.

In southern India, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema are expected to witness moderate to heavy rainfall along with thunderstorms and strong winds reaching speeds of 40-60 kmph. Kerala and Mahe are likely to experience isolated very heavy rainfall on May 18.

The IMD has also warned of hailstorm activity in isolated parts of Karnataka. In eastern India, Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal are expected to witness thunderstorms and thundersqualls with wind speeds reaching up to 70 kmph in some areas.

The weather office warned that heavy rainfall could lead to localised flooding, waterlogging in urban areas, disruption of traffic, damage to vulnerable structures and possible landslides in hilly regions. Farmers have been advised to ensure proper drainage in fields, protect harvested crops and provide support to horticultural plants vulnerable to strong winds and heavy rain.

The IMD also advised fishermen not to venture into parts of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal regions due to squally weather and strong winds associated with advancing monsoon conditions.

Heatwave in Northern and Central India

Despite increasing rainfall activity in southern and eastern regions, heatwave conditions are expected to persist over large parts of northern and central India. The IMD has forecast heatwave to severe heatwave conditions over Uttar Pradesh during the coming days, while Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh are also likely to experience extreme temperatures. It has issued a heatwave warning for 31 of Madhya Pradesh’s 55 districts, including Gwalior, Ujjain and Jabalpur.